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Comment: (Mar 08) It seems to me $60 is a bottom price for the time-being. I expected a little more lower price, however, the government has started to release some measures to deal with this situation, it might be difficult to assume further lower price. If the current wave started in 2003, near $56 might be a bottom. Housing market has not yet hit the bottom, so I cannot expect any stable rising. For more months which I don't know yet how long, a correction period would continue.
Comment: (Jan 08) As I imagined in Aug 07, it came to fall around $60, and at this moment the situation is not yet clear and nobody could predict when it is improved. I observe, as imagined in Aug 07, it might fall in the range of $55 - 57 and it would rebound. Hopefully it might hit a bottom, but my view is falling again after
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the rebound and tnen finally it would reach the bottom, but I don't know when and where. Momentum of the chart should be also checked.
(Nov 07) As imagined, it couldn't exceed 24 months m.a. My view is going towards 60
months m.a., but let's watch for another couple of months. US Real Estate industry cannot recover
so quickly. Many official reports are available here in my web site at "Official Reports" page.
(Sept 07) Please take a look at "
US Housing Starts" chart, and find there is one year
time lag to ETF price down. Also check homebuilder's stock chart (
LEN etc) which shows they have
already fallen till about 1/3 price of their highest prices. ETF homebuilder (
ITB) looks like following the
trend, but 1/3 price might be the bottom. Time correction might be needed after this for homebuilders.
(Aug 07) At least we should wait to fall until $60 which is 60 months moving average.
If it comes down in the range of $55-57, it would be supposed of the bottom on the long term bias.
(Jul 07) Waiting for investment timing to real estate ETFs.
