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Comment: (Jan 2010) After the long-term m.a. (10 years) which kept uptrend until end of 2007 changed the trend to downward, it already passed for 2 years. I presume that the US economy entered a new era when it went below 800 point of SP500. After that, it has been on steady recovery stage up to now, and it almost reaches the said long-term m.a. at around 1,200 point, however, it couldn't go over this line, but get into a correction. It would take a very long time for the long-term m.a. to have upward trend and in my view it wouldn't happen any more. Anyway, it depends on how Obama administration acts for US economy, however, I have no positive forecast. |
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Comment: (Mar 09) It at last went below the bottom line of 2002/2003. The meaning it couldn't maintain this line is very significant. I suppose US market has entered into a new era, that is, the stock market up to now has become a history and once finished. The chart shows a perfect discontinuity and I don't predict where the final bottom at this moment, but we should think the chart up to now is no more reference. I would say that SP500 is no more going up to around 1,600 point any more. It means the era that the US markets affected to all over the world has completely ended.
[ 10 Year US Treasury ]
| Title | Source |
| Breaking Down the Case | 04/17/10 WSJ |
| Goldman Sachs Charged With Fraud | 04/17/10 WSJ |
| Goldman CDO case could be tip of iceberg | 04/17/10 Reuters |
| Obama to Sign Health Overhaul Bill on Tuesday | 03/22/10 New York Times |
| Europe Commits to Action on Greek Debt | 02/11/10 New York Times |
| Investors Fear Europe’s Woes May Extend Global Slump | 02/04/10 New York Times |
| Wealthy Face Tax Increase | 02/01/10 WSJ |
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