About 2008, nobody wants to forecast the market even if it's about Commodities. It's so uncertain and volatile. I only dare to say one thing which is "the US was very successful to hand over its leading role to BRICs and the other emerging countries to drive the global economy during the last several years, I mean, during the Bush Administration times.

Being given this basic concept, BRICs, especially China / Russia and I want to add some resource-rich countries, will lead, or in another words, will affect very much on the global economy, therefore from now on we need always to pay attention on these countries move and needs/demands etc. I don't mean the US doesn't affect on the global economy, but the portion has come to be smaller gradually, which I guess what the US intended. Furthermore I guess, the US wants to have a re-set, and to come back as the only super-power after the next several years, or more, that I don't know.

So, I think we should follow China / Russia and some resource-rich countries' move for the next several years, then my strong interest is on Commodities, especially energy and foods, which would be on hot demands, and the trend affects on all the other markets. That's why I have added a page for "Marine & Shipping." I assume this industry would have big benefit from these countries and the above mentioned needs.

How would it be on Nikkei and Japanese stocks, which I have traced for the last several years. My view is bullish on Japanese stocks that have already bottomed out in the last few months and are ready to rebound. Let's look at Nikkei chart. It looks to me it is now around the bottom and the most important thing is that the other markets are on very high positions, but about Japanese stocks they are almost at the bottom level which means rather safer to invest and potentially to move up.

Corporate earnings are not bad, or rather good, but why it is near the bottom although all other countries stocks are higher. That's a natual question. My view is that it comes from uncertain political situation and weakness of the market. In this column, I am not trying to explain how the political situation would be improved in the future or near future, but I would say that that would have been a good reason to sell and make the market move down. In my view, however, it would not be an absolute reason not to move up. Investment money sometimes needs a good reason to lift the market up, but with the same reason it makes it down, too.

Another thing I want to mention is on the US housing bubble and collapse. I don't know how it would affect on the global economy at this moment. What I am thinking now is to compare with IT bubble collapse in 2000 and after. Since 2000, for 3 years all of major stock markets sunk to the bottom, however, it looks to me the US housing market went sideways and was safe, or even moved up. I think, investment money flowed into this field, and then from 2003 all of stock markets started to recover which led us to the housing bubble collapse having started in 2006. This time, housing, real estate and financial fileld were terribly damaged, then I guess it might be an appropriate idea that investment money would be going into Commodities just like the housing in 2000. Still, it's very unclear to say how the impact of the collapse on the global economy right now. I have been watching SP500 and in 2008 I will continue to pay close attention on the chart according to the above reason.

[Dec 28, 2007]